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Fırat Oğhan
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DİNLERİN SONU MU GELİYOR ?

iddia: Dünün dinleri bugünün mitolojileridir! Şuanki dinler de bir zamanlar hüküm süren Yunan, Sümer dinleri gibi yok olacak.

Öncelikle bir dinin ayakta durup duramacağı üzerinden belli bir zaman geçmesine göre değil mantıklı ve sağlam temellere oturup oturmadığına göre değerlendirilir. Burda yapılan mantık hatası “tarihte yıkılan bazı devletler var demek ki şuanki devletler de elbet bir gün yıkılacak” demek ile aynı.

Neyse söz konusu iddiaya araştırma verileri ile cevap vermek daha uygun olur sanırım;

Dinlerin gelecekteki durumu ile ilgili en kapsamlı en güvenilir çalışmayı yapan Pew Research Center verilerine baktık. Madde madde değinelim;

1)2050 yılında, Budistler dışında, tüm dini grupların nüfusunun artacağı tahmin ediliyor. Dünyada en hızlı artan din ise İslam!

2) 2010 yılında 1.6 milyar Müslüman 2.17 milyar Hristiyan bulunurken, 2015 yılında bu iki din 1.8 milyar(%24.1) ve 2.3 milyar(%31.2) sayılarını buldu.

3)Yapılan nüfus tahmin modellemelerine göre 2050’ye gelindiğinde Müslüman sayısı 2,92 milyar ve Hristiyan sayısı 2,76 milyar olacağı tahmin ediliyor. Yani liderlik İslam dinine geçebilir.

4)Dünya nüfusunun 2050’ye kadar %32 büyümesi beklenirken, Müslümanların sayısının %70, Hristiyan nüfus ise %35 oranında artacağı tahmin edilmektedir. 

5)En büyük iki dini grup İslam ve Hristiyanlık küresel nüfusun 2050’de %61, 2100’de %69’unu kapsayacağı tahmin ediliyor. 2010’da ise %55’ini oluşturuyordu.

6)Dinsiz sayısı ise ABD ve Fransa gibi ülkelerde artmakla birlikte dünyanın toplam nüfusunun azalan bir kısmını oluşturacaktır.

7) 2010 yılı dinsiz nüfus 👉1,1 milyar
2050 yılında tahmini👉 1,2 milyarı aşması beklenmektedir. Ancak oran olarak % 16’dan % 13’e düşmüş olacak.

En büyük artışın İslam dininde olmasının önemli iki sebebi doğurganlık ve genç nüfus;

8)Müslüman kadınlar için doğurganlık oranı 3.1 iken, diğer tüm dinler birarada düşünüldüğünde, bu oran 2.5! İkinci neden, Müslümanların tüm dinler arasında en genç nüfusa sahip olması.

9)doğurganlık oranı;

  • Genel ortalama👉2,5
  • Müslüman👉3,1
  • Hristiyan👉2,7
  • Hindu👉2,4
  • Yahudi👉2,3
  • Halk dinleri👉1,8
  • Diğer dinler👉1,7
  • Dinsizler👉1,7
  • Budist👉1,6

10)çocuk ortalaması;

  • Müslümanların👉2,9
  • Hristiyanların 👉2.6
  • Genel Müslüman olmayanların 👉2.2

11)2010 dinlerin yaş ortalaması;

  • Dünya ortalaması👉28
  • Müslüman👉23
  • Hindu👉26
  • Hristiyan👉30
  • Diğer dinler👉32
  • Geleneksel dinler👉33
  • Dinsizler👉34
  • Budist👉34
  • Yahudiler👉36

12) 2010 yılında 15 yaşından küçük yani çocuk nüfus;

  • Dünya geneli👉%27
  • Müslüman👉%34
  • Hindu👉%30
  • Hristiyan👉%27

13) 2010 yılı yaşlı nüfus;

  • Dünya geneli👉%11
  • Yahudi👉%60
  • Budist👉%15
  • Hristiyan👉%14
  • Diğer dinler👉%14
  • Dinsiz👉%13
  • Halk dinleri👉%11
  • Hindu👉%8
  • Müslüman👉%7

14) 2010-2050 yılları arası din değiştirme sonucu beklenen nüfus değişimi;

  • Hristiyanlık 👉66 milyon kayıp
  • Budizm👉2.8 milyon kayıp
  • Yahudilik👉310 bin kayıp
  • Hinduizm👉10 bin kazanç
  • Diğer dinler👉1.8 milyon kazanç
  • Geleneksel dinler👉2.6 milyon kazanç
  • İslam👉 3.2 milyon kazanç
  • Dinsizlik👉 61 milyon kazanç

Din değiştirenlerin büyük kısmı Hristiyan kadınlardan oluşurken, İslamiyeti seçenlerin daha çok eski Sovyet cumhuriyetleri ile Almanya, Fransa ve İngiltere vatandaşlarından oluştuğu söyleniyor.

Şimdi de genel olarak biraz da İslam’ın durumuna bakalım;

15) 2007 yılında ABD’nin Müslüman sayısı 2.35 milyondu, 2011 yılına gelindiğinde 2.75 milyona, 2017’de  3.45 milyona ulaştı.

16)2050 yılında Avrupa nüfusunun yüzde 10’unun Müslüman olması, ABD’de ise Müslüman nüfusunun Yahudileri geçmesi bekleniyor.

17)Hindistan’ın Müslüman sayısı ülkenin çoğunluktaki Hindu nüfusundan daha hızlı büyüyor ve 2060 yılında Hindistan’ın 2015 nüfusunun% 14,9’undan% 19.4’e (veya 333 milyona) yükselmesi bekleniyor.

18) 2060 yılında Müslümanların Nijerya nüfusunun % 60.5  çoğunluğuna ulaşması bekleniyor.

19)Hindistan, Endonezya’yı geride bırakarak, dünyanın en büyük Müslüman nüfusuna sahip olacak.

20) 2050 yılına gelindiğinde, Amerikan Müslüman nüfusunun 8,1 milyon kişiye veya toplam nüfusun% 2,1’ine ulaşması bekleniyor.

21) Müslümanlar Avrupa’da nispeten küçük bir azınlıktır ve nüfusun yaklaşık
% 5’ini oluşturmaktadır. 2050 yılında Müslüman nüfus tahmini iki katına çıkacak ve tahmini oran %11.2

22) 2010-2016 yılları arası Avrupa Müslüman nüfusu oranı 1 puandan fazla arttı,% 3.8’den % 4.9’a yani 19.5 milyondan 25.8 milyona yükseldi. Bunların 2.5 milyonu göçten kaynaklı.

Sonuç olarak;

İslam bütün inançlar arasında en hızlı artışa sahip ve bu yüzyılın sonunda Hristiyanlığı geçebilir. Din değiştirme sonucu en fazla artışın olduğu grup dinsizlik olsa da genel ortalamaya göre pek artış gözükmüyor ve bu yüzden de artış oranı gittikçe düşüyor. Dinlerde ise Budizm dışında diğerlerinde artış var. İslam dininde genç nüfusun fazla yaşlı nüfus az olması olumlu yönde etkiliyor. Ayrıca hem doğurganlık hem de din değiştirme kısmında artış var İslamda. Kısaca araştırma verilerine baktığımızda “dinler yok olacak” şeklindeki iddianın doğruyu yansıtmadığı sonucuna varıyoruz!

Kaynaklar;

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/06/a-new-estimate-of-the-u-s-muslim-population/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/29/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/12/04/europes-muslim-population-will-continue-to-grow-but-how-much-depends-on-migration/

DİNLERİN SONU MU GELİYOR ?

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